In my How to Choose a City for Rental Property Investment guide, I laid out the selection criteria for an investment city that would enable long-term financial security. Here, I will explain why I (continue to) choose Las Vegas using the criteria outlined in that article.
Note: This article draws on many sources. To keep it readable, I grouped most of the references at the end.
How I Screened Cities
1. Metro Population Size and Growth
Metro population > 1M with 5% or higher population growth between 2020 and 2025. This list contains 19 cities, and I sourced it from Wikipedia’s MSA page, since they already did the work based on U.S. Census data. Additional information sources are at the bottom of this article.
| Metro Statistical Area | 2025 Estimate | 2020 Census | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX | 2,620,945 | 2,283,371 | 14.78% |
| Raleigh NC | 1,595,720 | 1,413,982 | 12.85% |
| Jacksonville FL | 1,785,500 | 1,605,848 | 11.19% |
| Dallas TX | 8,477,157 | 7,637,387 | 11.00% |
| Orlando FL | 2,957,672 | 2,673,376 | 10.63% |
| Houston TX | 7,904,627 | 7,149,642 | 10.56% |
| Charlotte NC | 2,938,830 | 2,660,329 | 10.47% |
| San Antonio TX | 2,813,140 | 2,558,143 | 9.97% |
| Greenville SC | 1,014,101 | 928,195 | 9.26% |
| Phoenix AZ | 5,228,938 | 4,845,832 | 7.91% |
| Tampa FL | 3,418,895 | 3,175,275 | 7.67% |
| Las Vegas NV | 2,407,226 | 2,265,461 | 6.26% |
| Atlanta GA | 6,482,182 | 6,104,803 | 6.18% |
| Oklahoma City OK | 1,512,813 | 1,425,695 | 6.11% |
| Richmond, VA | 1,389,338 | 1,314,434 | 5.70% |
| Indianapolis IN | 2,205,695 | 2,089,653 | 5.55% |
| Tulsa, OK | 1,069,273 | 1,015,331 | 5.31% |
2. Low Crime
I eliminated cities included in the CBS News Top 50 Most Dangerous Cities in America which were:
- Houston at #19
- Nashville at #18
- Indianapolis at # 37
- Tulsa at #26
The remaining potential investment cities:
| 2025 Estimate | 2020 Census | Change % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin TX MSA | 2,620,945 | 2,283,371 | 14.78% |
| Raleigh NC MSA | 1,595,720 | 1,413,982 | 12.85% |
| Jacksonville, FL MSA | 1,785,500 | 1,605,848 | 11.19% |
| Dallas–Fort Worth TX MSA | 8,477,157 | 7,637,387 | 11.00% |
| Orlando FL MSA | 2,957,672 | 2,673,376 | 10.63% |
| Charlotte NC MSA | 2,938,830 | 2,660,329 | 10.47% |
| San Antonio TX MSA | 2,813,140 | 2,558,143 | 9.97% |
| Greenville NC MSA | 1,014,101 | 928,195 | 9.26% |
| Phoenix AZ MSA | 5,228,938 | 4,845,832 | 7.91% |
| Tampa FL MSA | 3,418,895 | 3,175,275 | 7.67% |
| Las Vegas NV MSA | 2,407,226 | 2,265,461 | 6.26% |
| Atlanta GA MSA | 6,482,182 | 6,104,803 | 6.18% |
| Oklahoma City OK MSA | 1,512,813 | 1,425,695 | 6.11% |
| Richmond VA MSA | 1,389,338 | 1,314,434 | 5.70% |
3. Personal income growth
Unless personal incomes rise faster than inflation, you can not increase rents faster than inflation. All the cities had personal income growth that was greater than inflation.
| City / Metro Area | 2020-2025 Total Annual Personal Income CAGR (%) |
|---|---|
| Austin, TX | 7.1% |
| Raleigh, NC | 6.6% |
| Dallas, TX | 6.2% |
| Orlando, FL | 6.2% |
| Charlotte, NC | 6.0% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 5.9% |
| Jacksonville, FL | 5.8% |
| San Antonio, TX | 5.7% |
| Tampa, FL | 5.6% |
| Atlanta, GA | 5.4% |
| Oklahoma City, OK | 5.4% |
| Las Vegas, NV | 5.3% |
| Richmond, VA | 5.0% |
| Greenville, NC | 4.6% |
4. Rent Control
None of these cities has rent control. This was determined by searching for “[city] rental restrictions”.
5. Operating Costs
Every dollar you lose to operating costs is a dollar less for you to live on. The two largest operating costs for most investors are insurance and property taxes. Below is a table showing state-level averages for home insurance (based on $400,000 dwelling coverage) and property taxes:
| City | State Average Insurance | State Average Property Tax % | Annual Operating Cost for a $400,000 Property |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando, FL | $9,283 | 0.80% | $12,483 |
| Jacksonville, FL | $9,283 | 0.80% | $12,483 |
| Tampa, FL | $9,283 | 0.80% | $12,483 |
| Austin, TX | $5,049 | 1.60% | $11,449 |
| Dallas, TX | $5,049 | 1.60% | $11,449 |
| San Antonio, TX | $5,049 | 1.60% | $11,449 |
| Oklahoma City, OK | $6,598 | 0.85% | $9,998 |
| Raleigh, NC | $3,904 | 0.70% | $6,704 |
| Charlotte, NC | $3,904 | 0.70% | $6,704 |
| Greenville, NC | $3,904 | 0.70% | $6,704 |
| Atlanta, GA | $2,902 | 0.83% | $6,222 |
| Richmond, VA | $2,508 | 0.75% | $5,508 |
| Phoenix, AZ | $2,875 | 0.51% | $4,915 |
| Las Vegas, NV | $2,206 | 0.55% | $4,406 |
I eliminated the following cities due to their high operating costs:
- Orlando, FL
- Jacksonville, FL
- Tampa, FL
- Austin, TX
- Dallas, TX
- San Antonio, TX
- Oklahoma City, OK
I then compared operating costs in the remaining cities with those in the lowest-cost state, Nevada.
| City | Annual Operating Cost for a $400,000 Property | Increased cash flow required to offset higher operating costs |
|---|---|---|
| Raleigh, NC | $6,704 | +$2,298 / year (+$192 / month) |
| Charlotte, NC | $6,704 | +$2,298 / year (+$192 / month) |
| Greenville, NC | $6,704 | +$2,298 / year (+$192 / month) |
| Atlanta, GA | $6,222 | +$1,816 / year (+$151 / month) |
| Richmond, VA | $5,508 | +$1,102 / year (+$92 / month) |
| Phoenix, AZ | $4,915 | +$509 / year (+$42 / month) |
| Las Vegas, NV | $4,406 | Baseline ($0) |
7. High natural disaster risk
Insurance premiums already reflect natural disaster risk. In general, the higher the annual premium, the greater the expected risk from events such as hurricanes, floods, wildfires, or severe storms. Because I had already eliminated cities with high operating costs, including high insurance costs, this step did not change my list.
8. Single Family Home Average Appreciation Rate
Rents follow prices, so what is happening with prices today will be reflected in rents in the future.
Here is the table sorted by annualized appreciation rate, from highest to lowest rate (see data sources below):
| Rank | City | Estimated 10-Year Home Appreciation Rate | Annualized Appreciation Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix, AZ | ~140% | 9.2% |
| 2 | Atlanta, GA | ~130% | 8.7% |
| 3 | Raleigh, NC | ~125% | 8.4% |
| 4 | Las Vegas, NV | ~122% | 8.3% |
| 5 | Charlotte, NC | ~112% | 7.8% |
| 6 | Richmond, VA | ~95% | 6.9% |
| 7 | Greenville, NC | ~80% | 6.1% |
All of the cities showed strong single-family home metro-wide appreciation.
9. Available Land
In some markets, new homes appreciate while older homes stagnate. Buyers naturally prefer newer floor plans, finishes, and energy efficiency. Every new home eventually becomes an older home, so long-term appreciation depends on continued demand for existing homes, not just new construction.
One reason older homes stagnate is the abundance of land. When a city has room to keep expanding, builders can continue adding new homes, reducing demand for existing ones.
To evaluate this risk, I examine how much land each city has available for future growth. I use Google Earth Timelapse to study how each city has expanded over time and how much room remains for new development.
- Phoenix, AZ – unlimited room for expansion
- Atlanta, GA – unlimited room for expansion
- Raleigh, NC – unlimited room for expansion
- Las Vegas, NV – Very limited room for expansion
- Charlotte, NC – unlimited room for expansion
- Richmond, VA – unlimited room for expansion
- Greenville, NC – unlimited room for expansion
To validate the impact of expansion potential on land costs, I created a table of the cost of 1 acre of undeveloped land on the edge of the city:
| City / Metro Area | Periphery Raw Land Price Range (per acre) | Market Context & Key Counties | Primary Source Links |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix, AZ | $6,500 – $30,000 | Exurban desert/agricultural land on the outer Maricopa/Pinal County line (Buckeye, Stanfield, San Tan outer fringe). | Land.com Phoenix & Central AZ Market Insights • LandSearch Arizona Land Prices |
| Atlanta, GA | $25,000 – $100,000 | Outer metro fringe counties (Paulding, Coweta, Bartow, Jackson, and Newton counties). | PrimeLandBuyers Georgia County Land Analysis • Land.com Georgia Land Market |
| Raleigh, NC | $75,000 – $200,000 | High-growth perimeter zones along outer Wake, Johnston, Chatham, and Franklin county borders. | PrimeLandBuyers North Carolina Land Data • LandSearch Wake County Data |
| Las Vegas, NV | $350,000 – $550,000 | Prime urban-edge developable land in Clark County (North Las Vegas, Enterprise, Henderson edge). Constrained heavily by surrounding federal BLM public land. | LandSearch Las Vegas Land Market Report • Land.com Southern Nevada Region Data |
| Charlotte, NC | $25,000 – $80,000 | Suburban growth corridors across county lines (Union, Cabarrus, Gaston, and Lincoln counties). | PrimeLandBuyers NC County Breakdown • Land.com North Carolina Data |
| Richmond, VA | $25,000 – $75,000 | Outer Henrico, Powhatan, Hanover, Goochland, and New Kent counties. | Land.com Virginia Market Insights • LandSearch Virginia Land Prices |
| Greenville, NC | $10,050 – $26,000 | Agricultural tracts and outer rural boundaries of Pitt, Greene, and Lenoir counties. | Land.com Richmond & Pitt County Land Data • PrimeLandBuyers NC Data |
Because Las Vegas has one of the highest raw land prices in the country, I also looked at what major homebuilders are paying per acre since they buy in bulk.
I was able to find major land purchases by three builders
- Pulte Homes (30.4 acres for $52.57M) or $1,729,276/acre
- KB Home (23.1 acres for $40M) or $1,731,602/acre
- Tri-Pointe Homes (19.6 acres for $33.5M) or $1,709,184/acre
I wanted to estimate the land cost for a typical 4,000-square-foot lot for a typical single-family new home.
My research found that in a standard single-family subdivision, streets and public rights-of-way typically add 20% to 25% to the land requirement. As a result, a 4,000-square-foot lot generally requires about 5,000 to 6,150 square feet of gross land. To be conservative, I used 5,500 square feet per lot (which includes streets) to estimate the underlying land cost for each new home.
Once streets are included, one acre of land yields about 7.92 lots. At approximately $1.7M/acre, an individual lot costs about $195,000. This is before home construction even starts. This is why new single-family homes in Las Vegas start at about $550,000.
The tenants we target typically earn $60,000 to $85,000 per year. That income supports rents on homes currently priced at roughly $350,000 to $450,000. Due to the cost of land, builders cannot build new homes in that price range. Thus, the supply of homes affordable to our target tenant segment is effectively fixed.
When you combine a fixed inventory and increasing demand from population growth, I can’t see any other way rents and prices can go but continue to increase.
Conclusion
Las Vegas didn’t win every category. But investing isn’t about picking the perfect city — it’s about stacking odds in your favor, and Las Vegas is the only city on this list that clears every filter.
The deciding factor for me is land. Every other city on this list has room to keep building outward, which means builders can keep adding inventory that competes with the homes you already own. Las Vegas is boxed in by federal and tribal land, and that scarcity now shows up directly in the numbers: new construction starts around $550,000 whose rents are well above what a tenant earning $60,000 to $85,000 a year can afford.
This means the supply of homes in the $350,000 to $450,000 range — the homes our tenants actually rent — is effectively fixed. Builders can’t chase that price point even if they wanted to. Meanwhile the metro keeps adding people, and those people need somewhere to live.
Fixed supply and rising demand don’t guarantee future price increases or rent increases. Nothing does. But they tilt the odds, and that’s usually the best an investor can ask for. That’s why Las Vegas is still where I put my money.
Information Sources
This article relies on many sources. To keep it readable, I grouped most of the references here.
Homeowners Insurance Rates
- MoneyGeek: Home Insurance Rates by State (Rankings & Averages)
- Bankrate Report Summary: Average Cost of Home Insurance Hits $2,470 per Year
- LendingTree: State of Home Insurance Study & Rate Increases
- The Hartford: Average Homeowners Insurance Cost by State Index
State Property Tax Rates & Housing Costs
- Tax Foundation: Property Taxes by State and County Analysis
- Tax Foundation Data Portal: Interactive State Tax Maps
- U.S. Census Bureau: Factors Affecting Property Insurance and Housing Costs Across States
Personal Income & Metropolitan Economic Growth
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): Personal Income by Metropolitan Area Data (Regional Economic Accounts)
Specific sources for each city
- Austin TX MSA – Travis County
- Raleigh NC – Wake County
- Jacksonville, FL Duval County
- Dallas TX – Dallas County
- Orlando FL – Orange County
- Charlotte NC – Mecklenburg County
- San Antonio TX – Bexar County
- Greenville NC – Pitt County
- Phoenix AZ – Maricopa County
- Tampa FL – Hillsborough County
- Las Vegas NV – Clark County
- Atlanta GA – Fulton County
- Oklahoma City OK – Oklahoma County
- Richmond VA – Not in a count
Single-Family Home Appreciation Rate Sources
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI)
The FHFA HPI provides weighted, repeat-sales indexes tracking single-family home price appreciation trends across over 400 American metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) using mortgage transaction data.
Zillow Research & Data Platform
Zillow tracks historical cumulative and annualized home value metrics utilizing the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), a smoothed, seasonally adjusted measure of typical home values across specific regions.
Is Las Vegas the Right Market for You?
Las Vegas may be a strong investment market, but that does not mean every property or strategy will work.
If you are evaluating Las Vegas rental property and want help comparing the market, tenant segment, expected rent, operating costs, and long-term outlook, contact me. I am happy to discuss your goals and explain how we evaluate potential investments.